The Law of Continuous Improvement

PDCA-PLAN, DO, CHECK, ACT

Through reading a book(The 7 Pillar of Financial Success)written by a Kenyan author, Murori Kiunga, I struck a goldmine that I would like to share with you! Many people believe that they must make a big leap for them to become successful. But I do believe that, changing your mind and nourishing it with strong information and abiding to some simple rules will make one achieve unimaginable level of success.

The Law of Continuous improvement states that, "small improvement, made continuously over a long period, can fundamentally reshape life and improve processes."

This law is phenomenal. Imagine you make 365 small improvement this year! How happy will you be in the coming Dec, 31, 2012 review? I treasure this law because it can make one become a complete different person in life. One can become very efficient through applying this law.

Improve your productivity everyday by just learning a new way of cutting your process time. Imagine how important you will become in your department when you become the most efficient personnel. definitely this will reflect in your paycheck overtime.Imagine how your business will flourish if you cut time of saving one customer by 20%. Imagine how big your business will change by improving your marketing skills daily.

Build a big purse full of monies through improving on your expenditures behavior. Start by cutting the volume of liquor you take daily. And channel this saved money into investments through buying TBL shares! You will definitely see how great you will become over 10yrs.

Improve your relationship with wife, fiancée, girlfriend, children, relatives and friends by just doing small things every time. The good of doing small things is that you wont feel like its costing you too much.

This law makes a lot of sense to me and I think same will be to you. We do not have to toil hard for our lifes to change enormously. It is just by doing small improvement continuously.

Everyday ask your self how am i going to improve my time use today? Is what am doing today the best? If not what small improvements should I adapt overtime to become the best? As usual I like talking about Investment, What investment do I have? What small continuous improvements should i do this year to optimize my investment goals?

Finally, the law rests on two fundamental things! Small and continuous! You just have to do small but continuous! If your improvement strategy is not continuous you are cheating yourself!

Regards,

Emmanuel Akyoo

2011 Roundup! The Big Money U missed Out

  
I have taken sometime to recap on opportunities that came to us in 2011 through DSE. Most of you guys missed out. You could not spare some pennies for this lifetime opportunity of owning part of efficient running and profitable companies. If you find out that this year was not for you next year will be there for you. But remember procrastination is the mother of all misses. However, you must understand that what happened in this year will not take the same trend next year it will be in some other ways!


Winners: 


DCB:  Up 129%. Dar es Salaam Community Bank was the best performer stock in 2011, It has gained from Tsh 280 per share in January 2011 through TSh. 640 per share in December 2011. I advised my followers to take an aggressive position with this stock in February 2011.

TCC: UP 39%. Tanzania Cigarete Company was the second best performing stock though far behind DCB. The shares have moved from price of Tsh.2,260 in January to Tsh 3,140 in December 2011.

SWISSPORT: UP 37%. This Airport handling company has being performing well and has good dividend policy which attracts dividend focused investors. However, monopoly enjoyed by the company has being endangered by new entrants that will be handling for Precision Air Services and other carriers.The company's shares moved from TSh600 in January to 820 in December 2011.

CRDB: UP 33%. The bank performed well in this year although the share price has fallen from the highest price of Tsh 225. Shares were priced at TSh. 130 in January and Tsh 173 in December 2011. Many investors shun bank shares because they are scared of the turbulent financial markets. Inflation, weakening and unstable local currencies, high borrowing costs and risks of loan default are among challenges facing financial institutions in the region currently.

NMB: UP 29%. NMB is the most extensive bank in Tanzania covering all districts and regional centers. Earlier loss making institution transformed to a profitable bank after being privatized to the most respected private bank, Rabo Bank. Banks financials have stabilized and profitability of the bank has being impressive. However, it has not being spared from current challenges facing financial institutions.

SIMBA: UP 25%. Tanga based Cement manufacturing company has performed well on the market this year. High growth in Construction industry comes with great potential in profitability and stability of this company. Growing competition from new entrants in Tanga, ARM and expected plant in Mtwara region by Dangote group poses a great challenge to the current cement manufacturers in Tanzania.

TWIGA: UP 16%. Cement Manufacturing company

TBL: UP 12%. Largest brewer in Tanzania.

Lossers:


TATEPA: DOWN 56%. This is the biggest losser for this year from the price of TSh.600 per share in January to Tsh 265 in December 2011.

Would you have invested One million TZS in each of the above eight highlighted stocks you will have realized 45% average return on your potifolio. And if you invested in the best 3 performers your potifolio would have resulted into a killing 68% average return. What if you invested TZS 100 million into DCB? This alone would have turned into TZS 228.5 million. Definitely, this is how millionaires get born!

Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange in average was the best Market in the region in this year. Nairobi and Uganda Stock exchanges have had their bad times throughout the year. Some stocks on NSE lost to the level of 88%. For investors in Tanzania Nairobi Stock exchange presents a strategic investment in 2011 and 2012 due to lower levels of valuation. Election in mid next year will make foreign investors in NSE sell off and hence push the NSE all share index further dip which will result to bargain stocks.

By: Emmanuel Akyoo

Precision Air Services Starts trading on DSE!

After poor IPO performance which ended with gross under subscription of fifty eight percent Precision Air Services have successfully registered on the Dar es Salaam bourse for trading.Precision air started trading at TZS495 which is 4.2% above the IPO price of TZS 475. Besides raising additional capital PAL intended to lift its image and credibility to stakeholders through registering on the DSE. Precision Air Services raised TZS 11 billion out of TZS 28 billion which they intended to raise through the IPO. It is however explained that the IPO was ill timed just before TBL Mini IPO which caught more of investors attention. Besides bad timing PAL shares where valued higher than many investors had anticipated.
   Precision Air Services has however confirmed to investors that it will continue to pursue her expansion plan and will cover the capital dificit via potential investors who have shown interest to inves in the company and other available means.
   Airline industry is faced with rising fuel prices and foreign exchange risks.But the good news is that Africa has high rate of growth in passengers volume in the aviation industry. Would Sub saharan Africa airlines withstand this era of market pressure and economic crisis in Eurozone a great future lies ahead.
  Also, PAL is facing competition from other East African carriers which are vieing for stake in the same market. Airlines like Fly540, Coastal,Air Uganda,Rwandair, Safariplus and Air Tanzania are fighting for a slice from the same piece of cake. The strategic aliance with Kenya Airways gives PAL an advantage over other carriers especially for the connecting passangers.
  We are looking forward to see other airlines follow the footsteps of PAL and KA in registering and involving public in their investments. Finnally, I wish PAL a good and bright business future.

By: Emmanuel Akyoo

Facebook Beats CocaCola!

Coca-Cola 
Originally intended as a patent medicine when it was invented in the late 19th century by John Pemberton, Coca-Cola was bought out by businessman Asa Griggs Candler, whose marketing tactics led Coke to its dominance of the world soft-drink market throughout the 20th century. Coca-Cola company currently trading at New York Stock Exchange(NSE) is valued at USD 99.5 billions.

Facebook 
"The Facebook" was started in 2004 as students social networking platform by Havard University dropout  Mark Zuckerberg. Since then facebook has been expanding exponentially. Currently, facebook is boasting of its 800 million accounts of its active users. Facebook has revolved to become a must use tool to advertisers and social net-workers. Facebook is planning to file for IPO before April 2012 with valuation of about USD 100 billions. This valuation is the one that is fascinating.   




Coca-cola valued at $99.5 billion and Facebook at $100 billion left me astonished. A company over a century old being beaten by a 7 (seven) year old social networking company! I always believed in time factor but as time counts on i get convinced that not all parameters of the market adhere to the time factor or FIFO! Both companies have global reach but coke is a product company and fb is a service company.


Twitter, Linkedin, facebook, Baidu and Google are among the players that have shaken my previous cling to the old school approach of time factor. Actually, it seems like tech companies defy time factor most of the times. Other tech companies like Netscape and mySpace, tagged and many more are not as popular as they were and some have already closed their shows so we are still on testing the depth of facebook business model.


With current trends and world evolution old schools is not a way forward anymore. 'Old is gold' will not hold forever! From the citation of Cocacola and facebook any reasonable man would have valued facebook much lower to coke but that's not the case here.However, time will tell whether this kind of valuation was  based on value or on popularity of facebook.


New innovation and discoveries will shape the future world and things will never be same always .Example, Services like Mobile Money Transfer services(Mpesa, tigopesa and Airtel Money) will have a great impact on financial services especially on the large banks. Also online banks pose a great risk to the Brick and mortar banks. Imagine getting paid your salary via mpesa, paying your daladala bus fare via mpesa etc. These trends should be thought well and tapped by visionaries.


Science and technology is taking a toll on the old way. We should ensure that the easiness of doing things and opportunities that comes up with Technology impacts on our l ways of doing things so that we can crunch the time factor as many other guys allover the world.


By Emmanuel Akyoo

Recharge your Battery with Chris Chirubi a Kenyan Multi-Millionaire

 My research this week has come up with great words from a fellow East African Multi-millionaire Chris Chirubi, who is an industrialist, Real estate developer and a media man who runs his own  show in his famous radio, Capital Fm. 

1.“One of the ways I believe you can find meaning of your life is by creating a strategy that you can use through your journey. You need to keep the purpose of your life, front and center as you decide how to spend your time, talents and energy. Remember that without a purpose, life can be hollow.”


2.“One of the most important lessons that has made me be a better employer and businessman is pointing out people’s strengths. I have come to learn that the praise of others may be of use in teaching us, not what we are, but what we ought to be. Enjoy your afternoon.”

3.“If you understand an idea, you can express it so others can understand it. However, if you can’t explain it, you don’t really understand it; and you cannot invest in a business you don’t understand. So friends, do your research well and understand the idea or concept you want to execute before investing in it.”

4.“I arise in the morning torn between a desire to improve the world and a desire to enjoy the world. This makes it hard to plan the day…but because I want to achieve my purpose and make a difference in society, I will stop focusing on the frightful things I see when I take my eyes off my goals and instead fix them there. With that said, I’m off to my meeting.”

5.“One of the most important lessons I have come to learn over the years is that you can’t do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and be in business tomorrow. You must keep learning new methods and ways of doing things to keep abreast with the world’s ever changing trends.”

6.“Business is always a struggle. There are always obstacles and competitors. There is never an open road, except the wide road that leads to failure. Every great success has always been achieved by fight. Every winner has scars….The men who succeed are the efficient few. They are the few who have the ambition and will-power to develop themselves. So choose to be among the few today.”

7.“Whatever opportunity you decide to take should be in line with your vision. When I look at the opportunities that come my way, I often ask myself, will it add value to a business or individual? If I cannot add value or contribute to some sort of growth then I will not take it.”

8.“To prosper soundly in business, you must satisfy not only your customers, but you must lay yourself out to satisfy also the men who make your product and the men who sell it…So if your not doing too well in business, you should consider the above.”

9.“Visualize your past victories while visualizing and anticipating future victories. Planting the seeds of positive expectancy in your mind is the best way to reap.”


10.“One of the most important lessons I have come to learn over the years is that you can’t do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and be in business tomorrow. You must keep learning new methods and ways of doing things to keep abreast with the world’s ever changing trends.”

Its true, without scars  on your face and blisters on your hands there is low chance of making it in this competitive world! 


Regards,
Emmanuel Akyoo

After PW, TBL there comes Africa Barrick Gold!

   After long period of IPOs scarcity since 2008 through 2010, this year 2011 has shown recovery of IPOs and cross-listing. Nation Media Group(NMG) cross listed early this year, Precision Air(PW) IPO and TBL's Mini IPO. However cross-listing on DSE has remained a window for boosting cross-listed companies image rather than for trading(exchange) and raising capital. There are few transactions on cross listed counters and some have seen no single transaction since being cross-listed.
  After TBL's Mini-IPOs there comes Cross listing of African Barrick Gold(ABG) on Dar es salaam Stock Exchange(DSE) which may become the most valued shares following their price of around Tsh14,000 per share. ABG listed its shares on London stock exchange in the beginning of 2011 and expects to cross-list its shares on DSE. This will be an opportunity for local investors to own Africa Barrick Gold which operates four mines in Tanzania being Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi, North Mara and Tulawaka.

          According to the news on Africa Barrick Gold web, Cross-listing will be on 7th Dec. 2011. However, following the structure of ABG only 25% is listed on London Stock Exchange(LSE) and the rest holding is under Barrick Gold. This means a small portion of listed shares in LSE will be traded on the DSE which may end up in a cross-listing trap like most of the Kenyan Cross-listed companies.

Fundamentals as on 31 Dec 2010 shows that ABG is far expensive compare to other Listed companies on The DSE. With PE of 18  and dividend yield of 0.50% the stock is already very expensive with comparison to the just ended Mini-IPO of TBL. Tanzanians were not  allowed to participate in the earlier London IPO in the month of March 2011 at a price of 575pence  therefore they will be having advantage given that ABG share price is trading at discount price of 485.61 pence as on 25/Nov/2011 compare to March 2011 IPO price of 575pence a piece.

    Price of gold has appreciated enormously since 2000. As per the chart above Gold has been on the upper trend since 2000 to-date, from a price of USD300 an ounce to current price of USD 1,680 per ounce(an ounce is approximately 27.1grams). Following current economic crises most rich investors and nations buys gold bullion and gold stocks to hedge against weakening assets and risky currencies.
    We are looking forward to see what more surprises would gold prices bring to us.  With current higher prices we are probalbly at a brink of downward trend would the Eurozone economic crisis challenges be well mitigated.  

Regards,
Emmanuel Akyoo                                          

TBL's Mini-IPO Running!

After Precision's IPO of which results are yet out there comes a brewer TBL for the thirsty investors! It was thirteen years ago when TBL was listed at DSE at Tsh 550 a share. This time mini-IPO comes as a result of East African Breweries Limited's(EABL) pull out of the joint venture for production and distribution agreements. Fair Competition Commission required EABL to offload her 20% ownership in TBL after it acquired a majority shareholding(51%) in Serengeti Breweries Limited(SBL). It could impair fair competition for East African Breweries to own both companies.
    For Investors this is another opportunity to own Tanzania's largest brewer at a fair price of Tsh.2060 per share. Last year's result show that TBL earned Sh297/share which implies 14.41% return on 2060 price. Given the fact that the business is growing tremendously we expect 2011 financial results to be more impressive. At earning of Tsh356.4(20% increase) in 2011 the shares will even be more valued. The Mini-IPO gives a PE of 6.93 which is lower compared to peer companies valuations. At PE of 10 the company would be valued at TSh 2,970 per share.


 Prior to this Mini-IPO, TBL counter at DSE was characterized with lower supply and higher demand which could not be satisfied. Following this IPO there is going to be additional 20% in the supply side if the shares would not go into the hands of institutional investors who are normally long term investors. Individual investors will influence the market to search for a fair market price. Many analysts values TBL shares at Tsh3,000 following its long history, good performance, reputable brands and macro-economic indicators.
  However, this divorce implies fierce competition between the two big brewers in the Tanzanian market. For Consumers we are going to experience a lot of promotions and several PR events. Despite the competition there is steal a big room for both to grow in profits given the fast growing market of boozers and better economic prospects for the East Africans.  
   Its time for boozers to channel part of their resources into this Mini-IPO which comes for a second time. Teetotalers could also invest in this to ensure that they have a stream of income from the beer takers.
   Finally, this article is for public information and its not intended to offend anyone, its judgement and analysis is purely based on business opportunity not otherwise.


Regards,
Emmanuel Akyoo

PRECISION AIR IPO SHARES OVER VALUED AT TZS 475/-

After a long time now since the last IPO of CRDB bank the Precision Air has broken the silence. There has been several cross listing at DSE for the kenyan public companies like the recent one of Nation Media Group. But for the Tanzanian companies, Precision Air IPO is the silence breaker deal after a long IPO Scant period. Literally, PW shares will be nice to hold because whenever u see it in the blue sky you will be reminded of your investment. However, this cannot be investors interest!
   Following the announced IPO Price of TZS 475/- per share I am very convinced that PW shares have been highly overvalued. Currently PW has a fleet of 11 planes, while KQ has a fleet of 33 planes, Kenya airways has more than 55 international and local destinations whereas PW has much less footprints.Also airline industry is characterized with lower dividends payout,higher PE and very vulnerable to fuel prices and Foreign exchange risks.

   Simply I would not value PW shares higher than KQ shares. Currently KQ shares are prices at KSh.25/- an equivalent of Tsh.425/- at Nairobi Stock Exchange which I consider a better market than DSE which has less activity on KQ counter at TZS 1020/- and Market Capitalization of TZS470.85 bln. Honestly, PW shares should have been valued at TZS 250/- per share.
   Finally, I would advice my customers to take a very precautionary approach towards the coming Precision Air IPO. If you really want to buy them for passion don't test the depth of a dam with two of your feet. Use part of your financial asset and spare the rest for TBL, ABG and many more to come.

Regards,
Emmanuel Akyoo

Don't Miss this Again! TBL's Public Offer Coming Soon!

Safari larger beer one of TBL's finest product!

Following East African Breweries acquisition of majority 51% stake in Serengeti Breweries Ltd(SBL) from a group of local investors now they are required by competition regulators(FCC) to offload their holding in Tanzania Breweries by way of public Offer(PO). This will result in to listing the 20% holding in TBL on the Dar es salaam Stock Market(DSE) soon. The performance of the company has been sound and gives a great prospect for the future. The market capitalization of TBL is TZS536.77 Bln and 20% translates to TZS 107.35 Bln which should be bought by investors.
Listing of additional 20% on DSE will see more activity on the TBL's counter which may result to higher prices soon after trading starts.Liquidity and Demand are good factors in determining the market price.
Currently market price per share stands at TZS 1820 and EPS 297 for 2010 therefore PE ratio of 6.13 which is a good point of holding the company for the long run.
Finally I'm advising boozers and teetotalers to hold tight their wallets for the coming investment opportunity.

Below find TBL's Ten year performance Review!

By Emmanuel Akyoo
Epak Capital Ltd

Never Miss IPO Ever Again! U JUST LOST Tsh. 25M in Profits!

Above is Tanga Cement industry which has rewarded more than 700% to her IPO investors!



Since 1998 Eleven Tanzanian companies have been listed on the Dar es salaam stock Exchange(DSE) and other five Kenyan companies cross listed on the market hence bringing the number of trading companies to Sixteen. Most of Tanzanian listed companies have performed so well in one decade and still they are showing a great prospect in the future. With companies like Tanga Cement Company(SIMBA) have give return of 580% on capital gain and more than 100% in dividend payouts grossing to 700%.This is real wealth creation! Had you invested Tsh. 1,000,000 today you would be having an asset worth TZS 6.8 Million! and more than TZS 1 million in dividends payments. Other companies which have enormously performed well include TCC,Twiga and TBL. I used to belive that these great returns are entitled to reach guys but now i realize that I could've tapped these opportunities too! Anyway i know its Just the begining and i'm happy to have discovered this priceless apparent truth!

In my simple research I've discovered that Entrance at IPO level is much safer and according to DSE Data out of eleven listed companies only two companies have done not so well since being listed(TOL and NICOL) others have rewarded returns in hundreds percent!

Would you have invested TZS 1 million in every IPO in the past Ten years you will have garnered a lot of wealth! Actually the money will have Tripled to more than TZS 35 Million being capital gain & dividends paid to investors! I'm sure it will not have costed you much collecting a million for a great investment opportunity! Where is the money you raised for your colorful wedding? birthday? or graduation party? where is the money you squandered now! You could have built a great asset base with the little money you had or just by cutting a bit of your good time budget.I don't want to advice you to forgo your great moments but an element of caution should haunt you always so as to balance your present and future.

Nairobi stock exchange has more than Fifty(50) Listed companies. If Tanzania market(DSE) will pull herself to list that number then we have just started investing and we have Known the truth at the right hour.

There are some good friends, who don't like to think outside their box. They keep on criticizing stocks holding over real estate and other ventures. Anyway, swahili people have a say that, 'ukimuamsha aliyelala utalala wewe' i dont wanna wake you up buddy, just keep on. Can you buy real estate for TZS 1 million? Can you start a hussle free business for TZS 1 million? its definitely impossible unless you have that magical formula! But you can buy a piece a well run business with Products,Systems and Teams working around the clock for you to get your value. Thats why i keep on insisting on a broader approach rather than myopic one. My idiosyncrasy sometimes get over but i hope you will bear with me.

For investment fools, IPO stands for Initial Public Offer and it means the moment which companies invite the public to subscribe for ordinary shares before listing on the stock market. IPO comes when companies require to raise new capital or when investors or the government wants to reduce/offload her/his shareholding by cashing in on IPO. Most of the IPOs in Tanzania have happened because the government wanted to cut her investment in companies. However, fewer have been for raising additional capital.

Just see below inset for further information about the performance of Listed companies on the stock Market.

Lastly, i've come to realize that there are rich and supper rich guys in Tanzania and East Africa who have just gotten there genuinely and no one should ever dare to question their Fortune. These people have gotten rich just by knowing the truth earlier than you and me.Fortunately, we have discovered the secret and soon we will share the cake. Always remember that temperate value investors will champion over a long run.

by Emmanuel Akyoo
Epak Capital Limited.